Notes about yesterday
I had a chance to interview Dr. Bill Gray on First @ Four. As you might expect, high-profile hurricane experts like Dr. Gray are in high demand for interviews. It turns out that Dr. Gray was just finishing an interview about 75 feet away from me when I was on the air at 4pm. I'm not sure how old Dr. Gray is, but he has been a professor at Colorado State for 48 years, so to see him run to me was pretty impressive. Even more impressive were the three-plus minutes he talked about this year's season and his somewhat controversial beliefs on man's role in global warning.

In a nutshell, Dr. Gray and his team foresee an average hurricane season. You can see the numbers in yesterday's live blog.

Dr. Gray also thinks that the global warming issue has been completely overblown. Here is an interview he gave to the Denver Post.

We had a nice dinner last night at Chez Willie - a French/Bahamian restaurant in Nassau.

I haven't been outside today, but I could see the palm trees swaying as a gusty wind has moved in. I'm sure it's not too bad out there. :)

Here's a shot of the Sheraton Nassau Beach around dawn on Thursday

Should the Saffir-Simpson Scale be Replaced
The first presentation of the morning is about the well-known Saffir-Simpson scale. The meteorologist showed several examples where the storm's category rating was not indicative of it's potential for damage. One in particular, Ike, had category 2 winds and category 4 storm surge.

The big problem with the Saffir-Simpson scale is that it you can't combine the wind and storm surge into one scale since their impacts can vary based on a storm's size and where it strikes.

As of now, the scale will be used only for wind. There will be no information about storm-surge potential in the Saffir-Simpson scale. Storm-surge projections will be issued separately by the National Hurricane Center.

America's Emergency Network
Brian Norcross, a former TV meteorologist who is famous in Florida for his coverage during Hurricane Andrew in 1992, is involved with a company (AEN) using technology to improve information dissemination via new technology.

This year, the National Hurricane Center will be able to issue live briefings via the Internet. Hopefully, we will able to provide these live streams on abc6.com. Although, after further review, it appears this may be a pay service - I'll look into it.

Hurricane Damage Mitigation
The next three presentations are concerned with mitigating loss/damage as a result of hurricanes. One of the big concerns is about building codes in the coastal states. According to the speaker, there are not adequate mandates for all new homes in RI. Massachusetts, however, is one of the few states that has adequate mandates for all new construction.

Neither MA or RI have incentives to retrofit existing homes.

The states are being ranked on a one to four star system based on how committed the state is to making homes hurricane resistant.

MA and CT both get three stars, but RI only gets two. RI has mandatory building codes, but they have not been updated to meet hurricane-resistant standards.  The biggest issue in RI is the weakened wind provisions that remain unchallenged.

Even though MA gets three stars, there is legislation in place that extends the old non-hurricane resistant code for another 18 months. Lawmakers in CT are also delaying their next code update.

The current speaker is Julie Rochman from the Institute for Building & Home Safety. I met Julie last night over dinner. She is a very interesting and funny person. Her company, based in Tampa, Fl. is supported by the insurance industry.

Next week, ground will be broken on a lab that will be used to replicate a category three hurricane in a controlled environment. A 1800-2000 sq ft. house will be able to be constructed in the lab - and then destroyed! Julie's background is in automobile crash testing, and she is excited to go from crashing expensive cars to blowing up houses all in the name of improving safety through better built structures.

By the way, it is freezing in here. Those who have been to the conference before are all wearing long sleeves or jackets. The rest of us are shivering.

There is a new experience at Innoventions in Epcot called StormStruck. It is the most popular attraction at Innoventions. It is a 4-D experience of a storm, along with a lot of fun, interactive ways to learn more about making your home more hurricane-safe. 

Click here for more information.

I met a meteorologist from Brownsville, TX at dinner last night. Tim Smith has been in Brownsville for almost three decades. We always talk about weather being relative, and my conversation with Tim last night certainly backed up that theory. He told me they had already hit 100° three times this year. He also told me that they cancel outdoor events when it gets really cold - in the 50s!

Here is a little tidbit of information that you may not be aware of: Do not tape your windows when there is an approaching hurricane. The tape isn't going to do anything to protect the windows, and you'll have to scrape the tape off afterward.

A few notes...
The morning break is wrapping up. I stepped outside for a minute and it is cloudy and - dare I say - cool. It's currently 75°, and the high today should be about 80°. The forecast is for more sun than clouds, but still breezy this afternoon. It looks like the weather back home is almost as nice, although you don't have the option of jumping in the 74° Caribbean water.

I mentioned yesterday that I am the only representative at the conference from a RI television station. There are two meteorologists from Springfield, MA, but surprisingly, nobody from the Boston market.

Reducing Future Hurricane Losses
Even with the improvement in technology and awareness, there has been a steady increase in the loss of property as a result of hurricanes over the last decade. The reason: more people are living in vulnerable areas along the coast.

How can we reduce future losses? Is it even possible? That's what is being discussed right now.

A comparison was made of airline crashes to natural disasters. There has been huge increase in air travel over the past few decades, but the number of crashes has not significantly increased. The reason is the NTSB investigates every crash with the mission of never letting it happen again.

When a hurricane strikes, there are often scenes of people grieving over the loss of a house and vowing to rebuild it the same way. Can you imagine the NTSB saying after a plane crash "We are going to rebuild this plane exactly the same way because it flew so well for a while"?

The speaker is suggesting that a National Disaster Reduction Board (NDRB) get established. This team of independent investigators would provide recommendations, not regulations, to help people in disaster-struck areas prevent it from recurring.

Twice today I have heard speakers use the phrase "Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result." This is a big issue where people are rebuilding in hurricane ravaged areas. Due to inadequate building codes or the ability to enforce the codes, these homes are being rebuilt in the same vulnerable way.

Forecasting hurricane formation in the one to two week time frame
This is a more technical discussion about atmospheric conditions that may drive the formation of tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean. I'm not sure there will be much to add to this blog about it, but I will certainly be paying very close attention to the presentation.

The bottom-line is there is an atmospheric oscillation that seems to have a correlation to hurricane activity. The trouble is in tracking this Madden-Julian Oscillation in real time. The current computer models do not handle it well, and it is often easier to tell where it has been as opposed to where it is supposed to be.

Global Warming and Hurricanes
If there is a hot-button topic at this conference - this is it. Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center is giving a presentation on it right now.

Dr. Landsea is a proponent of man-made global warming. Some recent computer modeling suggests a slight increase in hurricane intensity over the next century, but a 20% drop in frequency of hurricanes.

Dr. Landsea is talking about what I think is one of the biggest issues when looking at hurricane climatology - the lack of observations over the open Atlantic Ocean prior to satellite technology. Prior to the 1960s it was often very difficult to determine if there was a storm in the Atlantic unless a ship was nearby to encounter it. 

Basically, has the increase in technology led to a greater ability to identify tropical systems? The answer is yes. In addition to spotting storms on satellite, we are also seeing an increase in "flash in the pan" storms. The frequency of these short-lived storms has increased dramatically in the last few decades. Dr. Landsea suggest that 6 storms over the past two years would not have been named a decade ago.

Disregarding the short-lived systems, Dr. Landsea's findings are that there has been only a negligible increase in tropical activity over the past 100-plus years. With the "shorties" in the graphic, the increase was from seven named storms per year in 1880 to about 12 per year now. Without the short-lived storms, the number goes from seven to eight.

Furthermore, removing storms that may have been missed in prior years (in addition to the short-lived storms), leaves a flat line graphs. The entire upward trend if gone.

Dr. Landsea's opinion is that natural processes are the driving force behind the latest upswing in hurricane activity. It is similar to the busy period that occurred from the 1930s to 1950s. This is an interesting conclusion given his initial statement about his belief on man-made global warming. He believes that man-made global warming is a minor contributor to changes in hurricane intensity and frequency.

I'm finding this stuff fascinating, but the worker running the audio for the conference is sleeping soundly right behind me. 

The latest presenter is also hesitant to draw any direct correlation to increased CO2  in the atmosphere (man-made global warming) and hurricane frequency and activity.

Global Warming and Hurricanes Panel Discussion

The final presentation is a panel discussion among the previous two National Weather Service meteorologists who presented on global warming, along with Dr. Steve Lyons and Bill Read - the two men I will be interviewing on ABC6 this afternoon. The topic again is global warming. It promises to be a lively discussion.

Dr. Bill Gray is questioning one of the presenters about the way his research will be perceived by the general public. In Dr. Gray's opinion the data is somewhat misleading. The panel feels that the focus should be on doing the best research possible and not worrying about how it will be spun by the media and perceived by the general public.

Dr Steve Lyons - "To blame a single storm on global warming is ridiculous". Yet, so many people associate Hurricane Katrina with global warming. This is one of the misconceptions that we are always trying to overcome. Unfortunately, it is not just "Joe six-pack" who believes this, but many elected public officials also feel that Katrina was influenced by global warming.

A lot of the conversation is about how we, as broadcasters, can gently tread on the issue of global warming. The message from the panel is to not commit too far in one direction. We would never want to say "Katrina caused global warming", and conversely, we would be foolish to say after a relatively quiet year "There is no impact on global warming on hurricane activity."

My opinion is that the issue is too heavily weighted on the side of global warming having a big influence on hurricanes, so I am quick to caution on any correlation between global warming and any storms we've seen in the Atlantic or Gulf in recent years.

The panel discussion has ended, and so have the meetings.

I will see you First @ 4pm and at 6pm.

-Fred