The five week Southeastern New England snow drought is likely to come to an end this week. A rapidly intensifying storm will bring a slug of snow and wind our way on Wednesday. There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for most of the area.

This storm has the potential to undergo "bombogenesis" - which basically means it is going to be intensifying at a remarkable rate (1MB/hr for 24 hours).

Here are some thoughts on the storm's impact:

Timing
The snow should develop on Wednesday - most likely near the end or just after the morning commute. At this point, I don't think the storm is going to have a major impact on the morning commute, but a slight shift in the timing would definitely change that. In all likelihood, the storm is going to have a severe impact on the evening commute. The most intense snow and wind will likely be Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds could gust over 40 mph near the coast by mid-evening on Wednesday. The snow should wind down late Wednesday night, and it may be completely over by dawn on Thursday. Thursday looks brisk and chilly.

Type (Snow/Mix/Rain)
There is not a lot of wiggle room for this storm. If it comes a bit closer to the coast than currently forecast, there will likely be some sleet or rain mixing in with the snow. If it tracks farther offshore, it will be all snow, but not as much as currently projected. Right now, most of the computer models place this storm in a sweet spot that leads to mainly, if not all, snow for Southern New England. The best chance of seeing any mixed precip or rain is on Nantucket, with the odds of seeing mix/rain decreasing as you head inland.

Totals
It's still a little early to give a very accurate snow forecast, but 6" seems reasonable given the current track, timing, and intensity. There is the potential for higher amounts, but it's also possible that we'll see less if the storm tracks either much closer or much farther away than currently projected.

-Fred

The latest computer models are in, and they are not backing off a forecast of 20-30" for Washington D.C., Baltimore and Atlantic City. This incredibly big snowstorm is going to be forced out to sea south of Southern New England. It's hard to believe, especially for desperate snow-lovers, but Providence will most likely not see one flake of snow.

Here is a screencast with my thoughts on the storm.

The storm developing over the Gulf of Mexico and Texas is likely to have a major impact on millions of people as it dumps heavy snow in the Mid-Atlantic states. The $64,000 question is "Will it do the same on Southern New England?" At this point, it is very difficult to say if we'll get hit with a plowable snow, but it appears that Southern New England will be spared the worst this storm has to offer.

Below is a screencast that I record to help shed some light on the why this is such a tricky forecast. A storm track 50 miles farther north or south will mean a world of difference in our weather.

-Fred

It's been nearly five weeks between widespread plowable snows in Southern New England, but that streak may come to an end this weekend.

A rather impressive storm is likely to develop over the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. This storm should track far enough north to bring some snow to Southern New England. Of course, at this point, the question is how much snow will we see? 

Keeping in mind that that it's only Tuesday, my initial thoughts are for a moderate snowstorm, which will most likely be plowable. It appears that the storm is going to track far enough north to bring snow Friday night through Saturday. There should be enough cold air around to allow for all snow, provided the storm does not track significantly farther north than currently projected.

The storm is coming on the 32nd anniversary of the Blizzard of '78. i don't think this one has anywhere near the potential of that storm, but it could be our biggest snowfall since the near-blizzard in December '09.

Snowy Winter in the Mid-Atlantic
TF Green Airport has seen 26" of snow this season - about 5.5" more snow than normal. In Washington, D.C., the total has also been about 26", but there it has been a very snowy winter. Everything is relative to normal, and 26" in Washington, D.C. is almost twice what they would normally see (15") in an entire winter season.

Amazingly, the snow will continue to pile up in the Nation's Capital this week. The storm that is going to bring us light snow or flurries Wednesday morning, should bring a plowable snow to D.C.. Moreover, the storm later in the week is likely to bring another plowable, and possibly heavy, snow.

In this pattern, it's possible Washington, D.C. will end the season with three times their normal amount of snow. 

-Fred