Sunday morning marks the start of Eastern Standard Time. The sun will set at 4:40 PM on Sunday. I know that's a depressing thing for a lot of people who suffer from varying degrees of Seasonal Affective Disorder. Sure, it's brighter earlier in the day, but the early darkness can really be a downer for some.

The first day of E.S.T. signals the start of a long, dark winter for some, but for me it comes with a sigh of relief - for one reason: the computer models.

The forecasting computer models that we use are all initialized (started) at certain times of day - usually either two or four times a day. These times are 00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z. If you're thinking "what's with the z?", it stands for Zulu. Zulu time is also used for military and aviation purposes.  It is also known as Greenwich Mean Time and Univeral Time.

As we learned in middle school geography, the Prime Meridian runs through Greenwich, England. GMT, Zulu, or Universal time are all based on the current time in Greenwich, England.

The computer models initialize off of current data, some of which is collected by weather balloon launches throughout the world. All of the launches are conducted simultaneously - at 00z and 12z. Depending on where you are in the world, that can mean any hour of the day - local time. For us, during Daylight Saving Time, 00Z=8pm and 12Z=8am. When we switch to Eastern Standard Time (this weekend) those hours shift to 7pm and 7am. This one hour difference means that I get a look at critical computer forecast models earlier.

It allows me an extra hour to receive and decipher the new information, which is critical given the time of year - winter. When that big snow/rain storm is bearing down on us, I'd hate to have to wait until just before, or during, the 11pm newscast to get the latest computer projections. Thanks to the end of Eastern Daylight Time, I don't have to wait for it. I get it all before the 11PM news starts, which, in theory, should help me give a more accurate forecast.

-Fred

It's been a wild October thus far, with everything from strong wind to heavy rain to snow and cold temperatures. Through October 19, the temperature at TF Green is running 3.7° colder than normal. There has been 4.08" of rain - almost twice the normal (2.18") to date.

Here's the good news...the next couple of days will be warmer than normal. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast. A back-door front swings through Thursday night. Look for temps to settle back into the 50s on Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A vigorous storm will bring a round of some heavy showers and gusty wind on Saturday. This storm has been consistently forecasted by the computer projections for almost a week. It's not often that the computer models are that in tune with a forecast 10 or more days out.

The storm may also bring a thunderstorm or two. Wind will gust over 35 mph near the coast. The heavy shower threat lasts from dawn Saturday to dawn Sunday.

There may be some gusty winds behind the storm on Sunday, but they will be of the much drier variety - coming in out of the west.

Rare October Snow
You may be thinking "We're in for it this winter!" after seeing the snowflakes flying last weekend. Well, if history is any indicator, that may not be the case. The last two times that measurable snow fell in Worcester during the month of October (1988/1979) there was very little snow for the rest of the season. The total in those years were about 2 ft. for the season in Worcester, but at TF Green it was even less. In 1979 there was only 12.2" of snow, and in 1988 there was a mere 10.8" for the entire season.

I don't believe that one storm can dictate an entire winter pattern, but I will say this - the pattern we have been in for most of October is very favorable for snow in the winter. The question is, will this general pattern remain in place for the next 5 months? At this point, it's impossible to say.

Other factors that will influence our weather this winter are the developing El Niño and a shorter-term pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation. I'll have more on that as we get closer to December.

-Fred

The foliage is peaking in Northern New England and the moose are checking it out. Here are a couple of pictures sent to us from Tom Caughey, General Manager of Wildcat Ski Area. The colors are very vibrant in New Hampshire. The picture without the moose shows near peak color in Pinkham Notch.

This weekend will feature peak (or just past peak) color in the White and Green mountains of Northern New England. The colors will be at their peak throughout the rest of Northern New England.

Closer to home, there is near peak color in Massachusetts and Northern RI.

The weather should be decent for leaf peeping throughout this weekend. It will be brighter, but a bit cooler, on Sunday.

The weather blog will not be updated frequently during Hurricane Season. Our focus will be on the tropics. You can get daily updates on all the storms at http://www.abc6hurricane.com

Thanks for watching ABC6!

-Fred