THURSDAY 10:30PM UPDATE
How intense is this storm in Providence? Just as intense as Hurricane Carol was - at least as far as the barometric pressure is concerned. Of course, the core of the strong winds in a hurricane is much more intense near the center. There is no "eye wall" in a cold-core winter storm, so the winds were nowhere near as strong with this storm as with Carol.
Ray Vincent, one of our areas finest weather spotters, lives on Federal Hill in Providence. He called to let me know the barometric pressure has fallen to 28.77" - the same low point that was achieved when Carol came through in 1954. It's quite likely that this storm will drop the pressure to 28.76" or 28.75" in the next hour or two.
What a fascinating storm.
THURSDAY 10PM UPDATE
This storm is living up to its billing in the rainfall department. So far, the wind gusts have not come as high as advertised in SE MA, but right now Provincetown is gusting to 53 mph. It's possible the rest of the Lower Cape will get in on the strong winds in the next hour or two.
The heavy rain has ended on the Lower Cape, but it continues to come down in sheets in RI and interior SE MA. The heavy rain should last until about 11PM in RI.
It is really strange to look at the Stormtracker Radar and see the colors change from green (rain) to purple (mixed) south of Block Island! It is going to snow in the southern parts of our area before it does in the northern sections. The snow should not amount to much late tonight and tomorrow, but it will serve as the icing on the cake to a winter storm unlike any I've seen in 12 years of forecasting.
Jackpot in the Mountains!
Word is there have been 20-30" of snow at the big Ski Resorts in Maine, and it is still coming down! It's even more of a winter wonderland in Vermont, where some of the resorts have picked up nearly 40" of snow in the last three days. This sets them up for a great March, and it's a shot in the arm they really needed, with most of the month being snow-free. The totals out of New Hampshire haven't been quite as impressive, but I'm sure they'll do just fine.
Don't forget, you can follow me on Twitter for updates all the time.
THURSDAY 5PM UPDATE
The rain is picking up right now, but the strong winds have yet to arrive. You can expect moderate to heavy rain through the evening. Watch out for some street flooding. The Pawtuxet River has receded some in the past 12 hours, but should rise again late tonight. If we see another inch of rain, the river may get close to moderate flood stage. Keep track of it here.
Peak wind gusts on the outer Cape, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket could be over 60 mph for a short time tonight. Winds will gust over 40 mph at the coast of RI and near Buzzards Bay. The strong winds are likely between 6-10 pm.
Colder air will ride into Southern New England as the rain ends around midnight. Some snow showers are possible tomorrow morning. At this point, it doesn't look like a huge concern for the morning commute, but it is something to keep an eye on. Snow or rain showers will continue through the day tomorrow.
THURSDAY 10AM UPDATE
Mostly light rain out there this morning. Snow is falling in New York City. It should be a crazy day in the Big Apple. If it stays all snow, they'll be measuring it in feet.
The rain should become heavier around here this afternoon and evening. We are still looking at the potential for some street flooding, and the Pawtuxet river is still slightly above flood stage. We should see 1-2" of rain by late tonight. The heaviest rain and strongest wind are likely this evening. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the immediate coast of Massachusetts. Gusts over 50 mph may down some branches and power lines.
You can check the Stormtracker Radar by clicking here. Notice the odd north-south orientation of the rain/snow line. All the cold air is on the western side of this storm. We will see cold air move in on a southerly breeze tonight. That doesn't happen very often.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with the weekend forecast. We may escape this whole mess without any accumulating snow. The storm is going to linger around into early next week, but most of its punch will be gone. Our best shot at snow is if the storm interacts with another storm developing over the Atlantic Ocean. The combination of those two could lead to some snow and wind Monday into Tuesday.
Stay tuned to ABC6, ABC6.com, and follow me on Twitter for updates all day Thursday.
WEDNESDAY 11PM UPDATE
Granddaddy of them all?
In a winter of huge storms, the monster that hits the Northeast could be the biggest of the bunch. The computer models are showing a very impressive storm with wide-ranging impacts from blizzard conditions to flooding rain to damaging wind. The storm is going to undergo Bombogenesis in the next 24 hours. By the time it makes landfall on Long Island tomorrow evening it will be incredibly intense (972 MB or lower).
Even if this storm isn't the most impressive (it will be hard to top the DC Blizzard), it will most likely be the most unique. There will be blizzard conditions in Southern NJ and rain and wind in Maine. It's an upside down storm, with the cold air wrapping in from the south changing rain to snow from west to east tomorrow night. That change may reach as far as our area, but only after the heaviest precipitation has moved through.
The storm is going ot meander to our south for a few days, bringing the threat of rain or snow. Snow could accumulate in inland locations if it comes down hard enough. Temperatures will be marginal, so the best chance of accumulating snow will be at night.
Stay tuned to ABC6, ABC6.com, and follow me on Twitter for updates all day Thursday.
WEDNESDAY 9PM UPDATE
Pea soup fog is becoming more widespread this evening. At 9PM, most of RI had 1/4 mile or lower visibility. The fog should begin to lift once the rain starts to fall late tonight.
The newest computer information suggests a wild day tomorrow. Steady rain returns around dawn, but it should get more intense as the day progresses. The wind should be a bigger factor tomorrow than it was today. Gusts over 50 mph are possible in SE Mass and along the RI coast.
We are looking at another 1-2" of rain, which should be enough to push already swollen small rivers and streams over their banks. A Flood Watch is in effect for Kent and Providence County in RI, all of MA north of the RI border, and all of E CT. There will likely be some street flooding, too.
WEDNESDAY 7PM UPDATE
A flood warning is in effect on the Pawtuxet River in Cranston. The river is very close to flood stage, and should remain near, or over, flood stage through tomorrow's rain storm. Keep track of it here.
There is some locally dense fog out there this evening. Be careful if you're travelling, visibility will occasionally be reduced to under 1/2 mile.
WEDNESDAY 5PM UPDATE
The heaviest rain is shifting to the northeast of our area right now. The first storm delivered on its promise of heavy rain. TF Green came up just shy of the record (1.69") rainfall for the date by registering 1.57".
There may be a few showers this evening, but for the most part it will be drizzle and mist with some patchy fog.
Rain will return in earnest Thursday morning. It should be wet and wild during the late-afternoon and evening. Winds will gust over 40 mph near the coast, and the rain could lead to some street flooding problems in most of the area.
Tomorrow's moderate to heavy rain may be enough to push the Pawtuxet River over its banks. Click here to monitor the situation. You can see that the river came darn close to flooding this evening. Usually when the Pawtuxet floods, many other small rivers and streams overflow their banks. At this point, it doesn't appear the larger Blackstone River will flood, but that could change if we get more rain than expected tomorrow.
WEDNESDAY NOON UPDATE
Two days ago we had a nearly 2.5" rainfall deficit for February. This storm is going to wipe out most, if not all, of that, and the next storm is going to give us enough rain to turn February into a wetter than normal month. So far, there has been over 2" of rain at TF Green Airport from this storm.
The heavy, wet snow piled up in the highest elevations last night. The totals for RI were in the 3-6" range, with the highest toals at elevations above 500 ft. Worcester Airport, at an elevation of 1009' picked up 9.3 " as of 7AM.
As of 11AM, the snow has changed to rain throughout our area. The rain will slowly move to the east and north during the afternoon.
The break between storms is not going to be a long one. The next storm should bring rain back by mid-morning tomorrow. Tomorrow will be rainy, but the heaviest rain will move through in about a 6-8 hour period from late-morning through early-evening. Temperatures will jump into the 40s tomorrow. Some near the coast could get close to 50°.
The winds will be stronger with tomorrow's storm, but they may not be as strong as once projected. Peak gusts should be over 40 mph near the coast.
MIDNIGHT UPDATE
Heavy, wet accumulating snow everywhere northwest of I-295 Tuesday night. The highest elevations could pick up 6". Many will see 2-4", before a gradual transition to sleet and rain before dawn. Rain is likely to continue right through early Wednesday afternoon in the rest of Southern New England.
Watch out for big puddles on the roads in the morning. The areas that are seeing snow tonight could face the biggest travel hazards as there may be some ice-clogged storm drains.
TUESDAY 9PM
Storm Week is getting into full swing with a cold rain and wet snow falling throughout Southern New England Tuesday evening. This first area of rain and snow should push through by late-evening. A lull is expected late tonight before a second round of rain arrives Wednesday morning.
Snow should accumulate for a good chunk of the night in the highest terrain of NW RI. Every time there is a scenario like this we have to balance the time we spend talking about the accumulating snow with the fact that the vast majority of us do not live in the areas that will see snow tonight. It is always worth mentioning, but sometimes I worry that we spend too much time talking about the weather for a small minority of our viewers. In any event, there will likely be 2-3" in the higher elevations tonight.
Tomorrow morning will be rain and breezy - with the strongest wind near the coast. The heaviest rain should fall from mid to late morning. Rain will quickly taper to showers after noon, with clouds and light showers, drizzle, or mist likely by late in the day. Temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s tomorrow.
In case you're wondering...this storm is bringing a nice dump of snow to Northern New England. The mountains should pick up 6-18" of fresh powder - something they could really use.
MASSIVE SECOND STORM
The Tuesday-Wednesday storm, although no slouch, is serving as the warm-up act to a much bigger, more intense storm Thursday through Friday.
The second storm is going to take a very odd track, moving to the northwest after being due south of Southern New England. Normally, a winter storm in that position would track to the north-northeast, passing east of our area. This storm will become very intense and most likely pass right over us or to our west - putting us on the mild side of the storm.
The storm's projected track looks similar to the path taken by the Hurricane of '38. Interestingly, some of the bigger weather/media outlets are referring to this as a hurricane-like storm. I'm not sure I'd go that far with the comparisons, but this will not be your typical Nor'easter.
The track of the storm may lead to a blizzard from Philadelphia to New York City, with the prevailing wind direction being north-northwest. That is something that you would almost never see.
Because of the storm's track and intensity, there will be a mild side and cold side, and the difference will not be from south to north as you'd expect, but rather from east to west. The eastern side of the storm, probably where we'll be, will be milder and rainy. The western half will be cold and snowy. This means that areas like Portland, ME rain could be on the mild side with mainly rain, but Atlantic City, NJ stays cold and snowy. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Here are some ways the storm will impact Southern New England:
- Heavy Rain - Thursday should be very rainy. There should be about an inch, maybe more, of rain during the day Thursday
- Strong Wind - This could be very interesting. If the storm tracks through Long Island into CT, than the south coast of RI may be exposed to some very strong wind gusts for a time Thursday afternoon. Some of the computer projections I have looked at call for sustained winds of almost 50 mph on Block Island, and wind gusts of over 60 mph. On the mainland ti would be 35 mph sustained, with gusts over 50 mph - still nasty.
- Coastal Flooding - An intense storm tracking to our west will expose south and east facing shores to a storm surge. If this storm is as intense as forecast, than a 3-4 ft. storm surge is possible at the time of high tide on Thursday.
- Marine Impact - Not many Southern New Englanders are on the water at this time of year, but for those that are - Thursday is probably a good day to stay on the docks. Winds should easily reach Gale(34kt) force, and possibly Storm (48kt) force on Thursday. Seas will be 15-20' well offshore and 7-10' at the mouth of the bay.
- Snow? - If there is any snow with this system it will be on Friday as some colder air wraps around the system when it drifts east. This is a possibility, but with the amount of forecast uncertainty surrounding this system, I would not count on it.
-Fred
