5:30 PM Update

There is a video update attached to this story. Other than that, my biggest concern with the forecast has shifted from one that takes Hanna so far to our west that all we see is a squally shower, to a scenario where the storm curls to the east so much that she passes to our southeast and we don't see much of anything on the other side of the storm. Just writing that reminds me of how fickle these storms can be, especially when they are wobbling around like Hanna was for the last two days.

Tropical storms are easier to predict when they're moving steadily, and Hanna appears to be doing that now, so I should have much more confidence in the forecast by late evening or tomorrow morning.

The gist of today, so far, is the shift to the north and east of Hanna's arrival on the U.S. coast. It now appears that she will hit somewhere between northern South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  This shift from yesterday morning's projection of Central FL to Southern GA, is a result of Hanna wobbling to the east before starting her trek back to the northwest. The actual storm track has only shifted east by 75-125 miles, but the difference in landfall is huge because of the angle of approach and shape of the Southeast US coast.

Unless dramatic strengthening occurs in the next two days, Hanna will likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm or Cat. 1 hurricane. She should be a weakening tropical or extra-tropical storm as she passes by Southern New England Saturday night. She still has potential to bring heavy rain from early Saturday into early Sunday, and a 3-6 hour period of strong/damaging winds if she tracks very close to us.

From 2:30 PM Update

We're about 72 hours away from a potential visit from Hanna, and now, more than ever, it looks like we need to be on top of the forecast as it evolves over the next three days. MOST of the computer projections now show Hanna taking a track farther to the east, which puts Southern New England at a greater risk for a direct strike from the tropical system.

Follow Fred's latest thoughts on the tropics on his Twitter page

Hanna survives the shear
Tropical Storm Hanna survived the harsh environment (wind shear) and is showing a much nicer circulation this afternoon. The storm is now clearly lifting to the north-northwest. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates her motion at north-northwest around 10 mph. This same general direction and speed should continue through tonight.

Hanna may not be very intense storm, but she sure is a big girl. NHC says tropical storm force (40mph) winds extend about 290 miles from the center of the storm. By comparison, when Gustav made landfall, tropical storm force winds extended only 230 miles from the center.

This large storm will be in a favorable environment for some moderate development over the next couple of days. Hanna will either stay a strong tropical storm, or become a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Latest track information
As I mentioned earlier, nearly all of the computer models have shifted the track to the east of where it was yesterday. Rather than the prime target zone being on in Northern FL or Southern GA, it is in Northern SC and Southern NC. I think landfall may not be far from Wilmington, NC - where Floyd (1999) hit. The storm will most likely continue the gradual turn to the northeast over the Mid-Atlantic states before accelerating past Southern New England Saturday night.

Since this storm will likely not be a strong hurricane when it makes landfall, we should not expect an incredible amount of wind on Saturday. If the storm takes the latest projected track, we would see some gusts of 40-60 mph. Remember, a track just to our west is windier, a track just to our right is not as windy, but rainier. It's still too early to say which path the storm will take.

At this point, if you're hoping for the least impact - which most of us are, then look for a track that goes far enough to our east that we don't get the heavy rain. Almost all the damaging wind on these weakening tropical systems is located on the eastern side - which would be farthest away from us if the storm went to our east.

I wish I had time to add a few more thoughts, but I need to get ready for First at Four and ABC6 News at 6. I will update the blog again today. In the meantime, I may add some updates to the Twitter section of ABC6.com.

Don't forget you can click on our Hurricane Tracker and you'll get all the information you need.

Stay with ABC6.com for the best local weather coverage this hurricane season. I will have another blog update Wednesday evening.