Tropical storm Hanna is moving northwest at 14 mph with sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm is still throwing out winds of 40 mph, 300 miles from her center of circulation. The large storm should gradually turn to the northwest late tonight and make a run at the US coast by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Ike has exploded into the third major hurricane (Bertha, Gustav) of the season. He has sustained winds of 135 mph, making him a Category Four!

How much potential does Hanna have?
This is a question I've been grappling with over the last couple of days. Two days ago, when she was a hurricane, I thought she had potential to become another Cat 2 or stronger, but now, after fighting off a hostile environment for the last two days, I'm wondering if she still has it in her to regain the 80 mph winds she had 48 hours ago.

There are several factors working in her favor. She will be moving over warm water, and is already a very large storm, so there should be some intensification. There has been a large flare-up of thunderstorms to north of the center of circulation this evening, and a buoy 130 miles from the center of the storm is reporting wind gusts over 45 mph, plus 20 ft. waves.

So, it would seem that some intensification is likely over the next 24 hours. Although, the forecast gets Hanna back to hurricane strength, many computer models do not. Even our own Digital Stormtracker XT, which did a great job with Gustav, keeps Hanna as a tropical storm all the way to the Carolina coast.

Based on the projections I've looked at, and my belief that the NHC is willing to err on the side of projecting storm too strong, rather than too weak, I'd say Hanna will probably not undergo drastic intensification in the next couple of days.

Back-tracking on that last statement - the Ike issue
This seems like a good time to start a new section, and back off the final sentence of the last paragraph a bit. Did you see what happened with Ike tonight? He blew up from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in 7 hours! Check out the loop, and see the classic eye he is sporting. For two days, I've been saying Ike looks great, although the computer models were calling for very slow intensification over a several day period. Then, almost out of nowhere, the storm develops and eye, and hits major hurricane status. My point is, even in 2008, there are times when our eyes are more valuable than all the computer hardware at our disposal. You can bet we'll be watching the satellite loop of Hanna very closely tonight and tomorrow to see if she shows any of the signs that Ike did - regardless of what the models say.

By the way, the NHC scrambled to send out a revised forecast that oscillates Ike between Cat 3 and Cat 4 for the next several days. A far cry from what they had at 5PM. I'm not knocking them, I'm just saying how difficult it is to predict the intensity of these storms.

What do the latest projections show with Hanna?
Today's big model trend has been to shift Hanna to the east, bringing her much closer to Rhode Island. Just to reiterate what I've been saying all along: There are two distinctly different sides to a tropical system screaming up the East Coast. If the storm goes just to our west, it's windier, but not as wet. If the storm goes just to our east, it's not as windy, but wetter. Today's model shift to the east does not really clarify what the impact will be around here, in fact, it muddles the waters, because with two-and-a-half days to go, and the storm 1500 miles away, it is very difficult to say which side of the storm we'll be on. We may not know the answer to that question until late Friday. In fact, it's quite possible some of us will be on one side and some on the other!

Rain precedes Hanna's arrival
Some of the computer projections are calling for some tropical downpours well ahead of the storm on Saturday. This makes sense to me, given that the front steering Hanna to the northeast, will also grab what's left of Gustav. The combination of that front, Gustav's ghost, and some tropical moisture well ahead of Hanna, should lead to some heavy downpours Saturday morning.

That's going to do it for tonight - another update in the morning.

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Don't forget you can click on our Hurricane Tracker and you'll get all the information you need.

Stay with ABC6.com for the best local weather coverage this hurricane season. I will have another blog update Thursday morning.