The Bahamas Weather Conference formally began this morning with a beautiful rendition of the Bahamian national anthem. The Star Spangled Banner is known as a difficult song to sing, but the Bahamian anthem trumps it. The woman singing it went from deep lows to glass-shattering highs. 

The chairman of the conference is former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield. He is currently working as a consultant for a TV station in Miami. He is very well known in the Bahamas because the residents of the Bahamas consume a lot of American media. He guided the residents of the islands through many storms during his time as NHC director.

Arthur Rolle - Director of Meteorology, Bahamas

Leading off is Arthur Rolle, Director of Meteorology in the Bahamas. He gave an overview of the storms that had an impact in the Bahamas in 2008. Considering there were 16 named storms, the Bahamas escaped relatively unscathed. Hurricane Ike struck the southeast Bahamas, and although some damage was sustained, no lives were lost.

Mr. Rolle also spoke about the impact of global warming on the fragile ecosystem of the Bahamas. He showed some temperature projections that would have dire consequences for the coral reefs of the Bahamas. You may not know this, but I'm nearly certain the majority of meteorologists in this room (including myself) are skeptical about long-range climate change projections and man's role in the recent global warming.

Mr. Rolle outlined some ways that the tourism industry can become more "green" - including solar water heating, carbon capture, and coastal tariffs.

Bill Read - Director, National Hurricane Center

The second presentation was by current National Hurricane Director Bill Read. He provided an overview of the 2008 hurricane season. For those who don't remember, there were:

16 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

He also noted the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) which was 166% of normal - twice what it was in 2007. The ACE is being used more frequently to assess just how active the season was. For instance, there was only one more named storm in '08 than '07, but the ACE was double in '08 - meaning that 2008 was much more active.

Cuba suffered four MAJOR hurricane strikes. There were three "billion dollar storms" - Gustav, Ike and Marco.

Tropical Storm Fay, which never gained hurricane strength, caused a half-billion dollars in damage and took several lives as a result of almost two feet of rain in Florida. Director Read cautioned us against using the phrase "just a tropical storm". After seeing the flood damage it is understandable why.

Hurricane Gustav, which spared New Orleans its full force, was a monster storm in the Caribbean. A wind gust of 211 mph was reported in Cuba. Gustav's strength was very difficult to forecast. Director Read acknowledged that strength forecasts are still much more uncertain than track forecasts. 

Director Read also defended the decision to order widespread evacuations in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast prior to Gustav. Because the storm spared New Orleans, many thought the mandatory evacuations were an over-reaction by the forecasters. Mr. Read said the decision had to be made when the storm was still in the Caribbean and was a major hurricane.

Mr. Read had a particular interest in Hurricane Ike which ravaged the Texas Gulf Coast. He has a home in Galveston, TX. It survived the storm because it sits 30 feet above sea level.

There were several similarities between Hurricane Ike and the 1900 Galveston storm which is still the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

The storm damage was remarkable, and if it wasn't for the accurate forecast and the Galveston sea wall, the damage and loss of life would have magnified greatly.

Director Read showed a slide that highlighted the improvement in track forecasts over the last 30 years. In the last 15 years, the accuracy of a 48-hour forecast has gone from a 200 mile average error to just 100 miles. 

He is not a proponent of providing hurricane forecasts of more than five days.  He notes the huge uncertainty in these forecasts. 72 hours should be adequate time to prepare for the storm. A typical storm that is 96 hours away from Providence is still 2000 miles away from us.

Director Read wrapped up with a preview of some new products that the National Hurricane Center is working on for the 2009 hurricane season. This year, hurricane watches and warnings will be issued 12 hours prior to previous years. In years past, the warnings weren't issued until 24 hours before the storm was forecast to make landfall. This year that will be increased to 36 hours - allowing us to let you know sooner about the imminent dangerous situation.

I will be interviewing Director Read Friday afternoon. You can see it on ABC6 News at 6pm. He is a very like-able guy, and I was fortunate to be able to interview him at a hurricane preparedness conference last summer in Newport.

Here is a video of Bill Read shot by the media team at the Bahamas Weather Conference

Dr. Wilson Shaffer - Meteorological Development Laboratory
Storm Surge

Dr. Shaffer is giving us a general overview of the most dangerous and deadly part of hurricanes - the storm surge. In general, the largest storm surge comes from large, fast-moving hurricanes.

Ironically, Dr. Shaffer is pointing out that tide stations, which measure storm surge, often fail at the height of the event. In the real world, many times the height of the storm surge is determined after the actual event by looking at high-water marks in buildings.

The focus is Gustav and Ike. The highest surge from Gustav in New Orleans was along the Industrial Canal. I remember watching the water splash over the levees and fearing a repeat of Katrina.

Hurricane Ike brought a huge storm surge into the Texas Gulf Coast. 36 hours from landfall, there was a 80% probability of a more than five foot storm surge along a good chunk of the coast near Galveston. At the same time, there was a 50-60% probability of a 10-foot storm surge.

At the time of the hurricane warning, the forecast was for about a 20-foot storm surge. The basic message from the National Weather Service was "leave or die". The aftermath photos showed a completely devastated area, with very few structures still standing. The actual surge was about 15 feet.

A few other notes...
There are dozens of meteorologists here from not only the Gulf and East Coasts, but as far away as Utah and Colorado!

This is the 13th annual conference, but it is the first that I have attended.

We are at the beautiful Sheraton Nassau Beach Resort. There was a welcome poolside cocktail reception last night, complete with live music, great food, and of course an open bar.

I will be interviewing three of the foremost hurricane experts on the planet - Dr. Bill Gray, Dr. Steve Lyons, and NHC Director Bill Read.

My reports will be First @ Four and at 6PM Thursday and Friday.

My wife and I took a pre-sunrise (6:30 am) walk on the beach - it was 72°...jealous yet?

All participants were given a nice, official Bahamas Weather Conference polo shirt. Today was the day we're supposed to wear it, yet very few of the women participants have chosen to wear it. The guys are like "cool, a free shirt", the women are like "this doesn't quite match" or "it doesn't fit right"...

Mid-morning break is over.

Panel discussion on response to Gustav and Ike

Battery life is low on the laptop and I can't plug in right now. I may have to end this abruptly.

Hurricane Ike is being compared to Hurricane Alicia which struck the same area (Galveston) in 1983. Alicia was technically stronger, but the storm surge from Ike was much greater than Alicia due to the sheer size of Ike. It was an enormous storm.

Some of the issues with the evacuation decision-making process with Ike came as a result of it only being a Category 2 storm. There was a discrepancy between the severity of the situation and the message that was being conveyed to the public. The storm surge impacts were underestimated. Many residents of the impact area were reluctant to leave due to the forecast of a Cat. 2 storm, a very long, slow pilgrimage out of the coastal area, and the fact that Rita (a stronger storm) had struck a few years earlier without a devastating impact in the Galveston area.

 The emergency management people participating in this panel discussion have been through a lot in the last few years. From Katrina to Rita to Gustav to Ike, along with all the other severe weather they get, has really made life difficult along the Gulf Coast.

 One of the EMA officials just mentioned the "Three P's" - People, Property, Pets. Interestingly, it's the pets that cause the biggest problem with emergency evacuations. The lesson learned from Katrina was that people would not evacuate if there was no plan to deal with their pets. After Katrina, a plan was established to help people with pets evacuate. This plan allowed for a much better evacuation process during Hurricane Gustav.

Bottom-line from the panel is that there was an improved evacuation response from the public during Gustav and Ike compared to Katrina and Rita a few years earlier.

The coordination between EMA and the forecasters is always improving as a result of better technology.

Panel discussion on media coverage of Gustav and Ike

Three meteorologists who work at TV stations in the path of these storms are sharing their broadcasting experiences during these two big storms.

The panel is being moderated by Dr. Steve Lyons of The Weather Channel.

One of the TV meteorologists showed a video of himself in a helicopter a few days after Hurricane Ike. His station, based in Houston, was actually flying around the neighborhoods hardest hit by the storm, and checking on houses that displaced viewers had requested they look at. 

It is chilling to see the chopper video with an evacuated viewer on the phone getting a look at their house for the first time since the storm.

This came in the middle of almost 10 days of wall-to-wall converage, and I have to admit it made for riveting television.

A lot of discussion is about the coordination between news and weather during these severe weather events. This is a good point. It is important that the news and weather departments keep the lines of communication open during the forecast period, storm impact, and aftermath.

A side note - the last hurricane to hit the Southern New England coast was Bob in August, 1991. One of my main concerns is that a generation has passed since we've been struck by a storm. I hope that those living near the coast are aware of the vulnerability of our coast to strong hurricanes.

See you First @ 4 and on ABC6 News at 6pm.

-Fred