It's been a wild October thus far, with everything from strong wind to heavy rain to snow and cold temperatures. Through October 19, the temperature at TF Green is running 3.7° colder than normal. There has been 4.08" of rain - almost twice the normal (2.18") to date.

Here's the good news...the next couple of days will be warmer than normal. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast. A back-door front swings through Thursday night. Look for temps to settle back into the 50s on Friday under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A vigorous storm will bring a round of some heavy showers and gusty wind on Saturday. This storm has been consistently forecasted by the computer projections for almost a week. It's not often that the computer models are that in tune with a forecast 10 or more days out.

The storm may also bring a thunderstorm or two. Wind will gust over 35 mph near the coast. The heavy shower threat lasts from dawn Saturday to dawn Sunday.

There may be some gusty winds behind the storm on Sunday, but they will be of the much drier variety - coming in out of the west.

Rare October Snow
You may be thinking "We're in for it this winter!" after seeing the snowflakes flying last weekend. Well, if history is any indicator, that may not be the case. The last two times that measurable snow fell in Worcester during the month of October (1988/1979) there was very little snow for the rest of the season. The total in those years were about 2 ft. for the season in Worcester, but at TF Green it was even less. In 1979 there was only 12.2" of snow, and in 1988 there was a mere 10.8" for the entire season.

I don't believe that one storm can dictate an entire winter pattern, but I will say this - the pattern we have been in for most of October is very favorable for snow in the winter. The question is, will this general pattern remain in place for the next 5 months? At this point, it's impossible to say.

Other factors that will influence our weather this winter are the developing El Niño and a shorter-term pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation. I'll have more on that as we get closer to December.

-Fred