ABC6 WeatherLab – How To Make a Forecast

A lot goes into making a weather forecast for Southern New England. It all starts with the computer models. The biggest, most powerful computer model in the U.S. is the GFS model. But this model needs some help in order to make a forecast. First, it needs the initial conditions at all levels of the atmosphere. These initial conditions are primarily obtained through the twice daily launching of weather balloons from NWS offices across the country. These weather balloons carry a battery pack with temperature/humidity sensors, as well as anemometers, high into the atmosphere. As the balloon rises, the information is sent back to computers on the ground, where the data is analyzed.

Once the GFS computer model has all the data it needs to begin its model run, it uses certain mathematical equations to make a forecast of temperature, wind, precipitation, etc for the United States and beyond. After the GFS computer model has finished its run, I then examine the model data (and the data from other computer models) and make my forecast. We here at ABC6 are proud to have recently been recognized by WeatheRate as having the most accurate forecast in Southern New England, for the 3rd year in a row!

-Kevin Coskren, ABC6 StormTracker WeatherTeam