Breezy Saturday, Weekend Sunshine Returns

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WLNE) — Expect some light snow showers today especially in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure area rotates over New England. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern Worcester county, Western MA, and areas north of Boston. They extend northward into NH and VT. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for northern NH and Maine where they continue with a few more inches of snow adding to nearly a foot in many areas. Great skiing and snowboarding weekend ahead!

High pressure builds in this weekend to return us to sunshine.

Map

No arctic air or major snow event through early next week however, a colder pattern and a favorable storm track for snow may evolve by late next week.

This pattern will be with us mid to late week next week. It’s an interesting storm track. Someone in New England will get a decent snowfall!

Map5

The Wednesday storm track right now looks wet for Rhode Island with more snow interior and northern New England. We’ll track any changes to that track and trend in the coming days.

Stormtrack1

A slight shift (100 miles or so) to the southeast in the storm track would be just enough to give us an appreciable snowfall.

Stormtrack2

It wouldn’t take much in a shift of the storm track for the Rain-Snow line to set up over southern Rhode Island. This would keep some of us cold enough for a wet pasty snowfall.

Stormtrack3

 

THIS AFTERNOON: Snow Showers. Slowly falling temperatures 30-35.

TONIGHT: Snow showers early. Cloudy. Lows near 30. Icy untreated pavement late.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start. Developing Sunshine. Near 36°. Breezy.

SUNDAY: Sunshine to clouds. Eve. Rain. High near 40°.

MONDAY: Morning Rain, late day clearing.  High near 40°.

 

WHY THE MILD, SNOW-LESS WINTER?

A BIG INFLUENCE IS OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC.

La Nina (opposite of El Nino and one of the reasons for our mild, snow-less winter) occurs periodically. This year it’s back.

La Nina 1

Much like upwelling at our shoreline, the cooler water just below the surface rises when the warm surface water is pushed away by the trade winds. At our Rhode Island beaches, when there’s a land breeze, the same effect happens on a smaller scale. Warmer gulf stream waters are pushed away from the shoreline and cooler water at greater depths along the continental shelf rise to the surface.

La Nina 2

Those fast winds at about 5 miles up govern our weather pattern and this is pretty close to what we’ve had this winter so far. We’ll have to see whether La Nina conditions wane in February and March. If they do, that pattern may turn more wintry than spring-like.

January, our normally coldest month, is just about done and it will go on record as a warm one. There is an indication that winter cold and the chance for snow may be in the offing for the last weekend of the month and prepare to welcome February.

La Nina Jet

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