Heavy rain tonight

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WLNE) — The next storm for us is tracking west of us once again tonight. This keeps us on the milder side of the storm. For most of us, rain begins between 2 and 3 pm and becomes moderate and steady by the evening commute. Expect heavy rain tonight with nearly an inch of rainfall before 3 a.m. Heaviest rain will move through between 7 pm and midnight.

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As a secondary low pressure develops over Long Island, Rain will change to snow over Worcester County late tonight. We will see our heaviest rain between 8 p.m. and 2 am.

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Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Worcester county, Western MA, and areas north of Boston. They extend northward into NH and VT. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for northern NH and Maine where several inches of snow will fall. Great skiing and snowboarding weekend ahead!

No arctic air or major snow event through early next week however, a colder pattern and a favorable storm track for snow may evolve by late next week.

In about 12 hours, we’ll receive near an inch of rain before sunrise Friday. If this was snow, it would snow about an inch an hour and give us a foot!

Map

With an unfrozen ground and air temperatures above 32°, I don’t expect much snow to accumulate on Friday. However, if you are travelling north, be aware it may be wintry.

This pattern will be with us mid to late week next week. It’s an interesting storm track. Someone in New England will get a decent snowfall!

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THIS AFTERNOON: Rain developing 2 to 4 pm. Highs near 40 midday, but dropping to the mid to upper 30s in rain.

TONIGHT: A soaker. Steady Temperatures 36 – 38.

FRIDAY: Morning and early afternoon snow showers. Highs in the 30s.

WEEKEND: Mainly dry and seasonal, Near 40°. Breezy.

MONDAY: Morning Rain, 40s

WHY THE MILD, SNOW-LESS WINTER?

A BIG INFLUENCE IS OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC.

La Nina (opposite of El Nino and one of the reasons for our mild, snow-less winter) occurs periodically. This year it’s back.

La Nina 1

Much like upwelling at our shoreline, the cooler water just below the surface rises when the warm surface water is pushed away by the trade winds. At our Rhode Island beaches, when there’s a land breeze, the same effect happens on a smaller scale. Warmer gulf stream waters are pushed away from the shoreline and cooler water at greater depths along the continental shelf rise to the surface.

La Nina 2

Those fast winds at about 5 miles up govern our weather pattern and this is pretty close to what we’ve had this winter so far. We’ll have to see whether La Nina conditions wane in February and March. If they do, that pattern may turn more wintry than spring-like.

January, our normally coldest month, is just about done and it will go on record as a warm one. There is an indication that winter cold and the chance for snow may be in the offing for the last weekend of the month and prepare to welcome February.

La Nina Jet

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