Latest information on Southern New England’s projected COVID-19 curve

More than two days after the state of Rhode Island released data outlining the predicted curve of coronavirus hospitalizations in the state, the latest data shows the state is below the most optimistic scenario, and Governor Raimondo is adjusting her expectations.

According to the Rhode Island Department of Health, the state had 13 new Coronavirus-related deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities to 150.  Coronavirus-related hospitalizations currently stand at 254, lower than the lowest curve on the state’s projected hospitalizations chart.

At Sunday’s press conference, Dr. McDonald was asked if the state has been re-evaluating the accuracy of its model, and where does the state stand on that.

Dr. McDonald replied, “We are looking at all of the models. The Brown School of Public Health says it looks like 600 hospitalizations and maybe 150 deaths have been averted so far.”

RI Projected Hospitalizations as of April 16


On Saturday, the governor said she no longer thinks cases will rise to the levels projected in the state’s model, particularly if people continue to stay at home.

If Rhode Island were to see a spike in cases that would put the state back in line with the model’s lower blue line, Governor Raimondo has said that the state will have the capacity for the 2,250 patients who would need hospital beds.

A different model, created by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation places the state’s projected peak on April 23 at which time it predicts 610 patients will be hospitalized.

IHME’s model currently predicts that Massachusetts is at its peak Saturday, with 2,830 hospital beds needed.  The Massachusetts Department of Public Health confirmed 156 new COVID-19-related deaths across the state today, bringing the state’s total to 1,560.


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