NOAA issues 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast

With the start of hurricane season now just a week away, NOAA issued their initial forecast for the 2023 season in a press release earlier Thursday.

They are still predicting a near-normal season due to a few factors – some that could suppress storm development and some that could fuel it.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

After three hurricane seasons with a La Nina present, NOAA scientists are anticipating an El Nino to develop this summer, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, such as warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and a very active west African monsoon, could also increase storm development.

“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.”