(Providence, Rhode Island) – I have a confession to make. I love political polls! I know lots of people despise them. Others put too much credence in them, but I find them fascinating. They tell us so much; yet tell us so little, at the very same time. All kinds of conflicting data is emerging right now about the 2016 Presidential race, so let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“Caucus Raucous” – Iowa will hold the first contest in the 2016 Presidential race next January. The recent Des Moines Register newspaper poll has Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) in the lead at 16 percent; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) at 15 percent; former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) at 13 percent; Dr. Ben Carson at 10 percent; and former Gov. Jeb Bush, (R-FL) at nine percent.
“Don’t Take for Granite!” – New Hampshire will follow Iowa with its “first in the nation primary.” The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) at 17 percent; former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) at 16 percent; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) at 10 percent; and, Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) also at 10 percent.
“First Thoughts?” – These two states rarely sync up in the polls, or in the final voting results. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) won Iowa in 2008, only to be decisively beaten by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) just days later in New Hampshire. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won in Iowa in 2008, with Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) actually finishing third. Just days after that, Clinton cleanly beat Obama in New Hampshire.
“It’s All in the Bushes!” — At this point in time, Jeb Bush is the national frontrunner at 23 percent in CNN’s poll – but remember, in 1988 Bush’s dad George H.W. Bush had a tough time in Iowa, but won in New Hampshire, and went on to become President. His brother George W. Bush won Iowa handily in 2000, but was beaten decisively by John McCain in New Hampshire, yet George W. still became President. My point is Jeb Bush should not be overly concerned that he is not polling well in Iowa at this time, nor should the disparity of the two states worry him yet.
“Scott, Who?” – Right now the “dark horse” emerging is two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI). Walker is beloved by many for his public union battles and his successfully beating back a recall election. Plus, he’s a genuine Washington, DC outsider, a claim few else can make. Walker (photo above) is probably picking up momentum from some who had been thinking of backing Mitt Romney. On the other hand, those public employee unions and other strongly Democratic groups just detest Walker. Since they could not beat him at the state level, they’d like nothing better to knock him off nationally. Keep an eye on him.
“Function of the First Three” – South Carolina normally follows Iowa and New Hampshire. As suggested, none of these contests – in and of themselves – is a predictor of who will become President. The biggest function they provide is clearing the field. By the time the third contest happens, most of the “also-rans” drop out.
“The Paul Factor” – I think Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) bears watching, as he is polling well in both states – 2nd in Iowa; 3rd in New Hampshire. His dad, former Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), had similar strong followings in both states. Ron Paul may not have been a spoiler to the eventual nominee, but he was enough of a distraction that it was divisive to the overall GOP effort. Many Ron Paul supporters simply stayed home in 2008 and 2012, rather the vote in November for Republican nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney. Rand Paul, has a similarly committed following as his dad’s.
“Nationwide is on Her Side?” – Potential Democratic nominee – former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – is sitting pretty. Right now polls show her beating every Republican head-on in key battleground states. Polls in New Hampshire have Clinton defeating Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Rand Paul. The only good news for the GOP is that Clinton is only at 50 percent. In Virginia, polls have Clinton beating Bush and Paul, as well as Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie. Again, Clinton‘s poll numbers barely top 50 percent, which means Republicans, can be competitive.
“Not a Done Deal” – I agree Hillary Clinton is by far the Democratic frontrunner, but not everyone is on board. For example, a group in Iowa is trying to lure Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) into the race. There is a small, but vocal element in the party that believes Clinton‘s time has come and gone. They still want the first female President, thus the draft-Warren movement. Just remember, at Christmas of 2007 Clinton lead Barack Obama in some polls by over 20 points. We know how that ended. Keep an eye open to Democratic “dark horses.”
“Why All of this Matters?” – Well, it does; and it doesn’t. As I always tell people, polls are just a snapshot of one simple moment in time. They are not a predictor of any outcome that is 20 months away. Having said that, early polls can matter in terms of fundraising, endorsements, volunteers, and hiring experienced management. Right now we are in the construction stages of all these campaigns, and the candidates need solid building blocks for their foundations. Early polling can sway key people and donations.
What are your thoughts? Who are your early choices in both parties? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
