Dee from the Desk: Ten lessons to take from Tuesday’s governor’s race

As the dust has settled after Tuesday’s Election there are a few lessons we can take from the day.

First, while there is a Moderate party there can be no viable Republican candidates for governor. Historically, in Rhode Island the Republican Party has been the alternative party to the status quo. This is because the state is run almost entirely by Democrats from the General Assembly on up. In the past when voters were sick of the way that things were headed they would turn to a Republican at the top of the ticket, now they turn to the Moderate. We saw this in 2010 with Ken Block, and we saw this on a much larger scale in 2014 with Bob Healey.

Second, Rhode Island governors are now elected by a plurality, not a majority. Governor Chafee won in 2010 with 36.1% of the vote, Raimondo won in 2014 with 40.7% of the vote. Neither victory was more than 50% of voters. Since only half of all registered voters even turnout, Rhode Island is now letting less that a quarter of the voting population decide its fate. This just demonstrates the true apathy of the electorate.

Third, while there is some validity to the claim that Bob Healey cost Fung the election, Buddy Cianci didn’t help him either. Democrats turned out to vote in Providence to help put Jorge Elorza over the edge and block Buddy Cianci from taking back the office. Had Cianci not been on the ballot, there would have been less focus on the Providence Mayors race and less voters probably would have turned out. The voter turnout in Providence for Elorza crushed Buddy Cianci and also crushed Allan Fung.

Providence voters largely have the power to decide the state. That much is clear. Raimondo’s huge lead in Providence is what put her over the edge in the race. Raimondo won the election with 14,346 more votes than Fung. In Providence, she beat Fung by 16,125 votes; more than enough to put her over the edge.

Fourth, Fung should have spent more time in the East Bay. Fung could have made up for his huge loss in Providence in other places. His campaign should have focused more on the East Bay particularly in Healey territory of Bristol and Warren. Fung should have also hit Aquidneck Island more often. With a little more campaigning Fung could have won the town of Portsmouth.

Fung also needed decisive victories in Cranston and Warwick which he did not get. In Warwick the race was neck-and-neck, Raimondo only slightly behind with 35% of the vote to Fung’s 37.8%, and Healey pulled 25.8%. If Fung had a strong lead there he could have helped offset the Democrat victory in Providence. In Cranston, while Fung was the clear favorite with 55% of the vote, Raimondo still captured 30.2% and Healey grabbed 13.8%.

Fifth, negative campaigns do turn people off. The amount of negativity on the airwaves the last few weeks of the election is probably what drove some voters to Bob Healey who was not on television attacking his opponents and was not being attacked.

Sixth, campaign platforms don’t matter as much as we think. Candidates and campaigns spend tons of time touting ideas and rolling out platforms but in the end the guy who had virtually no platform still got 21% of the vote. Healey had a few ideas he offered up through debates such as legalizing marijuana and not paying back the 38 Studios loans but he never had the “comprehensive” (ever notice how much politicians love that word?) campaign platform roll outs that Raimondo and Fung did. Instead he said he would assess the situation when he was elected and use common sense to help him govern.

Seventh, anyone can be called a political insider, even Healey. Depending how you define insider most people who run for statewide office are. For instance, Bob Healey has been on the ballot for a decade now, people know his name. Healey knows the political game and the community. He may not care or choose to play it and he hasn’t been elected to office but it doesn’t mean it he is not politically astute and clearly aware of the players, much more so than the average voter.

Eighth, money is not everything. Healey’s largely grassroots campaign on a $35 budget proves it. This kind of campaign wouldn’t work for just anyone though. Healey has an image. People think of him as “cool” in fact in the past he labeled himself as a “Cool Moose.” Healey’s $35 versus the millions dumped into the race by Raimondo, Fung, and outside interests. Not to mention in 2010, Block went on TV with ads and spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on his campaign and only grabbed 6% of the vote.

Ninth, you don’t need talk radio to get elected in RI. Every candidate on the statewide ballot who won, aside from Lt. Governor Elect Dan McKee, participated in the boycott of radio talk shows and guess what, they still won. Most likely because most voters are not as inside as talk radio and the blogosphere is and these insider news outlets probably don’t play into voters decisions that much.

Ten, the Moderate Party is alive and not likely to go anywhere. Healey’s candidacy as a Moderate probably renewed interest in the party started by Ken Block in 2010. It is probably likely more people disenfranchised with the political system will look to register as Moderates and alternative candidates may even look to run as Moderates in the future. One this is clear, Block’s departure from the Moderate Party did not kill it.

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