Dee from the Desk: Primary Problems

 In the end this whole primary season will boil down to one thing, and it is not ideas.

It’s each candidate’s get out the vote efforts. This year is an off year election. There is no presidential race to captivate the attention of the average voter and quite frankly the average Rhode Islander is not super engaged in politics. Many probably are not turning out to vote on primary day because despite the age old saying that every vote counts many citizens don’t quite see it that way. Let’s just look at the numbers, in 2010, the last off year election, voter turnout in the primary was abysmal at 18% with 107,503 Democratic voters and 20,743 Republican voters. Literally the fate of the state could lie in less than 20% of the population.

Therefore it is up to the candidates to let the voters know just how important their vote will be for the result of this primary. Further, they need to work to turn out Independent voters to their own primaries.

The Republicans have their work cut out for them.

Where the Democrats have several contested races on their ballot that could turn out voters, the Republicans only have one that has garnered significant public interest: the Governor’s race.

Don’t take this the wrong way, the Democrats need to turn out voters and have boots on the ground on Election Day, their fate depends on this. With a likely turnout to be under 30% and the candidates within ten points of each other, the whole race could hedge on who turns out voters. Pell will benefit from the support of the powerful teachers unions, and Raimondo has the teamsters along with the fact that she can afford to pay people to work for her campaign on Primary Day. Not to mention Raimondo’s campaign team is the same team that brought Congressman Cicilline, who once had a 17% approval rating, to victory in 2012. The team is highly experience and knows what they are doing. Taveras should not be discounted either. Taveras has been able to mobilize people in a big way on a city level in the past and he will try to do this on a statewide level. The question is will it work? Taveras will likely win Providence which has a large number of Democratic voters but he still needs to get out into the rest of the state. Although, Providence is a huge advantage; there will be a high turnout due to the Democratic Mayoral Primary and Taveras is largely popular in the city so many of those voters will go to him. Providence has the largest number of Democratic voters in the states, so the other candidates will have to win big in other areas to make up for Taveras’s Providence gains.

Additionally, some Democrats will turn out to vote for the lower ticket candidates they feel strongly about. Right now there is a contested race for every office except for Attorney General. With that said the fact that there is more to vote for and people will feel like their vote is going a longer way will encourage independent primary voters to vote in the Democratic Primary instead of the Republican Primary.

The Republicans are going to have the biggest struggle turning out voters. Aside from the governor’s race there is not much going on down ticket. Unless, of course, you live in Warwick where there is a mayoral primary underway between Mayor Scott Avedisian and Stacia Petri. In Warwick, voters that feel strongly for or against Avedisian will likely turn out to vote in the Republican Primary thus making Warwick a battleground city. Allan Fung is likely to do well in Warwick considering Avedisian’s popularity and the relationship between the two candidates. Warwick is a score for either Republican considering it is the city that had the highest Republican voter turnout in the 2010 primary bringing 2,739 voters to the polls.

Meanwhile, Ken Block is going to do well in the Blackstone Valley. There, Block has the support of several of the Republican Town Committee Chairmen, most notably Lincoln and Cumberland. If those chairmen can mobilize people on Election Day Block will likely sweep the valley. This is big for a Republican because there are a lot of Republican voters condensed into Northern Rhode Island.

Fung will likely play well in the major cities among Republicans. Fung will probably win Pawtucket, Cranston, Warwick, and Providence. Although it will be nice for Fung to win Pawtucket and Providence it is likely to make a difference in the race considering the lack of Republican voters in these cities. Most people in Providence will be voting in the Democratic Primary not only because the majority of folks are Democrats but also because there is a major mayoral primary in the works. However, Warwick and Cranston are key to a primary win for Fung. Cranston brought out 1,295 voters in the 2010 Republican primary.

North Kingstown and Newport are also huge Republican battlegrounds. Newport turned out 1,601 primary voters in 2010 and North Kingstown had 1,209. Some of these numbers were affected by local contested Republican Primaries but either way both of these areas do carry a significant number of Republican voters.

In the end the race is still anyone’s game as it appears that all the candidates in both the Democratic race and Republican race are neck-in-neck. Ultimately the campaigns will get to showcase their political skills on primary day as they turn voters out to the polls. There is 10 days until the primary barring a major shake up or major gaffe this race will hinge on Get Out the Vote efforts.

Dee DeQuattro is the assignment desk manager and digital news coordinator for ABC6. She studied politics and communications and holds a master’s degree from Providence College. Follow her on twitter @deedequattro and log on to ABC6 .com for her latest in depth coverage of politics and news.