Brayan Bello poised to become focal point of Red Sox rotation

A breakdown of the 24-year-old righty's 2023 season and 2024 potential
Ryan Medeiros,
Bello
Boston Red Sox's Brayan Bello steps off the mound after the Miami Marlins got their first hit off him, during the eighth inning of a game at Fenway Park on June 29, 2023 (AP)

BOSTON, Mass. (WLNE) — It’s no secret that the Boston Red Sox have roster uncertainty heading into the 2024 season.

A need for starting pitching has become increasingly apparent, with that notion inflamed by Rafael Devers’s comments earlier this week.

Regardless of the noise, Boston’s front office appears poised to make 24-year-old Brayan Bello a focal point of the 2024 Red Sox starting rotation.

Bello recently said his agents have engaged in contract extension talks with the Boston front office, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, adding that a deal may be close between the two sides.

It would be a wise move, considering Bello is the first Red Sox pitching prospect in years to come up through the system and significantly contribute to the starting rotation.

In fact, only two Boston-developed pitchers have delivered 150 innings in a season for the major-league club over the past decade.

Prior to Bello in 2023, you have to go back to Eduardo Rodriguez, who debuted in 2015 and cleared the 150-inning threshold in 2019 and 2021.

The fact that the Bello came up and tossed 157 league-average innings in 2023 can be considered a win on its own.

But a closer look at his age-24 season reveals he’s probably better than a league-average starter.

Breaking down Bello’s 2023 season:

Discounting the righty’s first two and final two starts, Bello posted a 3.39 ERA in 140.2 innings over 24 starts sandwiched in between.

An 11.74 ERA in 16.1 frames over the other four starts notably ballooned his numbers.

It is reasonable to assume a second-year pitcher like Bello may have suffered an adjustment period to start the season.

Even more likely is the notion that he was probably affected by fatigue down the stretch.

But that large chunk of consistency in the middle is worth getting excited over.

Bello does not have the gaudy K-numbers of elite starters in the league

Rather, he’s at his best when he generates weak contact, keeping the ball on the ground.

Bello’s go-to putaway pitch is his changeup, which has proved to be a lethal weapon.

Bello’s changeup numbers from 2023 (per Statcast):

  • .196 BA / .291 SLG / 38.7 Whiff% / 25.7 PutAway%

Bello pairs his changeup with a sinker, his primary offering, leading to a plethora of worm-burners.

The hurler’s 56% groundball rate was fourth highest out of 127 starters with at least 100 innings pitched.

While Bello should continue to be effective with the two-seam and changeup alone, he has the tools to take a significant step forward in 2024.

Bello tinkered between different versions of a slider in 2023, from a harder-gyro variety to a sweeping type.

A creative idea might be to lean on the sweeper, which seemed to be most effective down the stretch, while also going back to the cutter he tried mixing in.

Using the sweeper as a whiff-pitch against righties and the cutter as a barrel-jammer against lefties would seem to be an ideal plan.

Regardless of the route Bello chooses, he should have enough spin-ability to create a solid third offering.

In addition, while Bello’s four-seamer doesn’t have great movement properties, keeping it up in the zone should generate more whiffs when balanced with the rest of his arsenal.

Those adjustments seem like a lot to mix in over a single offseason, but the pieces are all there.

There’s no doubt the Red Sox will be leaning on Bello to once again cover a significant amount of innings.

It certainly helps that the 24-year-old has time on his side.

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