Chafee’s a Democrat: What’s that mean for 2014?

Governor Lincoln Chafee is going to be a Democrat… now what?

Chafee's decision to abandon his role as Rhode Island's Independent Governor and join the ranks of partisans promises to shake up what was already expected to be a divisive Democratic primary.

Providence Mayor Angel Taveras was expected to be the union favorite in a primary against General Treasurer Gina Raimondo but with Chafee in the race the union vote is divided. Both Chafee and Taveras have enjoyed union support while Raimondo's pension reform program have turned her into public enemy number one in the eyes of local labor leaders.

Chafee also gives Taveras a run for his money when it comes to the minority vote. While Taveras is still likely to comeout on top among minorities Chafee is likely to do some damage as he has been a constant friend and ally of immigrant groups.

Speaking of friends, Chafee has one powerful friend the others don't have; President Barack Obama. As a result the Governor is likely to attract national support and money to his campaign threatening Raimondo's huge financial edge in the race.

In other ways, Raimondo truly comes out on top when it comes to the addition of Chafee in the Democratic primary.

The most “liberal” democrats are likely to choose the Chafee ticket, the most Conservative will side with Raimondo, leaving Taveras to split the union vote with the Governor and to grab the “in-betweens.”

The divided primary may also attract Independent voters and conservative cross overs which are most likely to benefit Raimondo.

Raimondo's ticket through the Democratic primary may very well be the three way race, otherwise, she risks being taken out by organized labor.

The Chafee factor in the race definitely hurts Taveras who will now run the risk of dividing the more “liberal” vote with Chafee. If Taveras decides not to run for Governor and the race comes down to Raimondo and Chafee, Raimondo is in trouble.

Chafee will attract organize labor and she will repel them. Raimondo would give Chafee a run for his money but in order to beat Chafee she would have to hope for a scenario similar to the 2008 Steve Laffey, Lincoln Chafee Republican primary (in reverse). Simply put, Raimondo would need conservatives to cross over and turn out to vote in the primary to overcome the very powerful and very organized labor unions.

Raimondo has another factor on her side that both Chafee and Taveras don't have; She is a woman. There are many women who are eager to make state history and elect a female to the Governor's office and this makes Raimondo an attractive candidate.   She can relate to the unique struggles experienced by woman and has a mother she will appeal to women with children; no one can understand a mothers instincts like a mother.

When it comes to the General Election the three way race between a Democrat, a Republican, and Moderate Party Chairman Ken Block promises to boost Block's numbers. With less to choose from Block is a viable alternative to someone struggling to choose between Democrat or Republican. In a smaller race Block is likely to pull off a larger percent of the vote, last election he made history when he made the Moderate Party official with 5% of the vote this time he stands to get votes in the double digits.

Likely Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Allan Fung should be excited about the news too. If Chafee prevails in the primary Fung can hope to attract independent voters and more Conservative Democrats. Fung has proven he can gain the support of democrats in Cranston, running unopposed for mayor in the last election and blowing away his Democratic challenger with 76% of the vote in 2010.

A heated primary on the Democratic side also buys Fung some much needed fundraising time. Fung will be able to sit pretty and rack in the dough while the Democrats duke it out and exhaust their resource on each other. While the Democrats bloody each other up Fung will be able to build himself up and he may end as the most attractive candidate come the general election. Fung still has an uphill battle to fight but with Chafee as a Democrat he might stand a better chance- don't forget Rhode Island notoriously elects Republican Governors.

Finally there is some speculation that this is a move so that Chafee can take a job with the Obama Administration. This would be surprising. Chafee would not need to be a Democrat to work for the president and let's not forget, the real benefit to affiliating for Chafee is the access to campaign cash that is marked specifically for Democrats.

In the end you got to hand it to Chafee, he sure knows how to make the headlines and stir the pot. This as Buddy Cianci says is a game changer for the Governor's race, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out… Oh, and if you haven't noticed yet, Wikipedia wasted no time marking the change. Chafee is now listed as the Democrat Governor of Rhode Island.