March Madness Math: The Best Bracket Strategies
By: Kainani Stevens
March might mean the start of spring for some, but for hardcore basketball fans, it’s the start of another season – bracket season. While many play by their own superstitions, there are some who are always trying for that perfect bracket. But just how likely is that? According to Dan Katz, a Brown University math professor, fans shouldn’t get their hopes up.
“[The odds are] 9 quintillion. It’s essentially a billions billion. So, if you have everyone on Earth fill out over a billion brackets and [spend] a minute per bracket, it would take over 2000 years to fill out all of the possible brackets,” Katz said.
But the chance of striking out shouldn’t keep fans from playing the game. Katz was able to offer a few tips for those who are vying to win their office pool.
“If your team is a 15 or 16 and you’re pulling for them to go to the finals, you’ll probably be sad pretty quickly,” Katz said.
Everyone dreams of a Cinderella story, but no number 16 seed has ever won a tournament game and only a few number 15 seeds have managed an upset. According to Katz, the best bet is probably the most obvious one.
“You are better off picking mostly top seeds,” he said. “Your friends will think you’re lame because that’s the easy thing to do, but your best bet is to play the math.”
Top seeds aren’t always going to be an absolute guarantee, though. All four number one seeds have only made the Final Four once. Katz recommends taking a chance on a number three or even a number five seed that might just take it all the way.
Katz’s most important tip? Have fun!
“It’s all for fun, so just go with the 11 or 12 seed if you really like it,” he said. “Then you’ll have fun watching the games.”
