NOAA issues 2023-24 winter outlook
Southern New England projects both wetter and warmer than average... but that doesn't mean lots of snow is out of the question
Earlier Thursday, NOAA released it’s official winter forecast for the upcoming season. The primary goal for this forecast is to provide critical guidance for numerous industries and sectors of our economy, from energy producers to commodities markers, agricultural interests to tourism.
From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
As for the possibility for extreme cold, signals are on the weaker side for winter as a whole. In fact, much of the U.S. is looking at overall temperatures ranging from normal to well above average. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the lower-48, including Southern New England. Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains.
The driving factor for the us outlook is the strong El Nino pattern that’s in place, the first one in four years.
Southern New England’s warmer winter projection is far from a death knell to big snows this season. In fact, several years of the past decade have yielded both above average temperatures and above average snow amounts. The last two winters were exceptions, but we also had either El Nino-neutral or La Nina conditions, which favor less snowy winters.
