NOAA Releases 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
The countdown to hurricane season is on, and once again, it looks like we have an active season ahead.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025 Atlantic Basin Hurricane forecast on Thursday. The organization is expecting an above-average season, with a forecast of 13-19 named storms, with 6-10 of those storms being hurricanes, and 3-5 of those hurricanes reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
But why are these meteorologists pinpointing this as another busy season? There are a few factors that come into play, the first of which is that sea surface temperatures are expected to be above-average. Warm ocean water is like fuel for tropical cyclones, and this year it looks like that will be in abundance. The second factor is that NOAA is forecasting weaker wind shear. Wind shear, which is the difference in speed and direction of the wind as you go up through the atmosphere, tears tropical cyclones apart. It is an inhibiting factor. So, when wind shear is weak, tropical cyclones have further ability to form and strengthen. The third factor that NOAA meteorologists have taken into account is an active West African Monsoon season. This could lead to more/stronger tropical waves (which are often times a jumping-off point for tropical cyclones).
Aside from the forecast, NOAA officials urged that the time to prepare is now, before the season even begins. New England has had its run-ins with tropical systems over the years, and while it isn’t always a top target for these massive storms, being prepared ahead of time doesn’t hurt. This is also important if you are planning to travel to any hurricane-prone locations, like areas along the Gulf Coast or Southeastern Seaboard. Simple ways to prepare include packing an emergency kit, knowing where all your important documents are (and keeping them in a waterproof folder), and having a good understanding of where you live (or where you are traveling to) in terms of flooding potential.
