NOAA releases its 2024-25 Winter Outlook
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual outlook for the upcoming winter season.
It was a fairly unsurprising publication, given some of the known atmospheric trends during the second half of 2024.
NOAA is calling for above-average temperatures during meteorological winter (December through February) in Southern New England.
This has been a fairly frequent occurrence in the greater Providence area, as the last five winters have also seen warmer than average temperatures.
The driving force behind this prediction is because of cooling waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is transitioning into a La Niña pattern. With this phase, warmer temperatures tend to occur along the eastern seaboard.
That doesn’t mean we can’t see outbreaks of cold air, they can still happen. But overall, temperatures are likely to finish higher.
Climate change could also be a factor in the warm prognosis. Since 1970, average winter temperatures have trended almost 5° warmer in Providence.
There are no strong signals for above or below average precipitation in the Northeast, meaning we are likely to be around average amounts.
Given these factors, our snow chances will likely come down to timing of arctic outbreaks and coastal storms – the latter of which give us the majority of our snow.
